Championship Permutations

A quick post about how Vettel or Alonso can win the championship.

  • If Vettel finishes ahead of Alonso, he will win the championship.
  • If Alonso finishes off the podium, Vettel will win the championship (the gap is 13 points and fourth place is only worth 12 points).
  • If Alonso finishes third, he needs Vettel to finish 10th or lower to win the championship.
  • If Alonso finishes second, he needs Vettel to finish 8th or lower to win the championship.
  • If Alonso wins, he needs Vettel to finish 5th or lower to win the championship.

I’d guess Vettel has about a 90% chance of winning the championship, and Alonso has about a 10% chance. But even if it’s just a 1% chance, as Kimi Raikkonen will testify, it could still happen.

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